Today’s 3-pointer will be brief, and it could very quickly become functionally irrelevant as the coronavirus panic spreads from grocery stores to real estate viewings. There are 3 statistically-biased reasons you really shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the idea that “spring market” pricing is any different than the other seasons: People – selection bias Product – selection bias Pricing – observer bias I have this... [read more]

1.    Don’t try to time the real estate market. Buy and sell in the same economy. Trying to create or carve out an arbitrage in a volatile market is where people get burned. Unless you're an economist, an actuary, or write financial instruments for a living, arbitrage is fickle. One of the important ignored nuances around this concept is that if you’re selling, and your sale is challenging, then that will proportionately affect your sentiment... [read more]

Last night, the Ontario government released a list of all businesses they consider to be essential during a Covid-19 induced shutdown-ish thing. Some doomsayers have told me the general economy has sort-of been ground to a halt. Some organizations seem to be salvaging with the ostensible "work from home" strategy. The challenge with real estate is that it's functionally impossible to do remotely. Sure, 90% of the transaction can leverage technology - but it is a... [read more]

    00:00 sure thing okay well thanks for having 00:02 me on then obviously I work with you so 00:06 we do have quite a past together but 00:08 I'll give you some context here just for 00:10 anyone that's listening my name is sim 00:12 Manoa I am the managing partner at vina 00:15 Capital were a real estate financing 00:18 company that focuses on commercial... [read more]

Last week I started increasing my real estate market reporting to include weekly updates. Reverse engineering: My secondary objective for this increased coverage is to learn what a recovery scenario might look like, and to be able to understand the shape it will take. Until that happens, I'll likely continue this practice. My primary objective for this increased coverage is to monitor the important indicators that we can use in an attempt to determine whether nor not we... [read more]